Experiment - Low Price

Discussion in 'Proof-of-stake Mining' started by Ayush, Apr 28, 2016.

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  1. David

    David Sr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
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    This just isn't feasible. It's a really cool idea and I have thought about it before, but it just can't be done. The selfish nature of human beings that will undercut one another for fiat currency is one critical factor... the other would be getting 95% of the PoS participants on-board, when I'd take a wild guess and say that the members of the forum probably only represent 50-60% of the PoS participants.
     
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  2. Dyrk

    Dyrk Sr. Member
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    Jan 7, 2016
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    After the last update it is based not only on a 30-days average, but also on average ticket price in the current pool. Which is by the way already 11.35 DCR. So if you wait for < 10, maybe it will happen one day, but you are already loosing money.
     
  3. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy Sr. Member
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    Dec 28, 2015
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    Because right now there are almost always some open slots in every price change period. Once we have more DCR in the field available to stake and more individuals are staking the auto ticket buy method will cease to work at the lowest price points. It will be a race to see who can get their ticket of the 2880 tickets in at the lowest price/lowest fee. This will create a ticketfee price war at those low levels. Are you willing to spend .8dcr of the 1.8dcr reward to get your ticket in at the lowest price? Say 9 rather than 14dcr? What about .85? Will someone do 1.32573dcr? Probably. Are you willing to get that low of ROI on a vote if you got the lowest price? Yes it may work for those who wish to tune and tweak and fiddle with it like day traders do in the stock market. Not everyone will want to do that.

    That is why.
     
  4. LastNinja

    LastNinja Full Member

    Dec 31, 2015
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    PoW is a diminishing returns market and so is PoS. It will be a race to the bottom and some people might even be willing to lose some money in PoS just to play this game (crazy as this may sound initially). After all hundreds of millions of gamers world-wide also spend money without ROI, i.e. they pay to be allowed to click certain pixels on their screens. So why not pay and lose money for playing this new DCR PoS game? :p
    Mostly kidding...
     
  5. phzi

    phzi New Member

    Apr 15, 2016
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    @LastNinja huh? Who said it doesn't work? It works to a provably optimal level. And nobody is behaving "wrong." Ramble much?

    @drunkenmugsy good thing there is a working stradegy that ensures your ticket purchases get included.

    @Dyrk still, how does it make sense to buy tickets towards the beginning of an epoch with reasonably low activity? It doesn't.
     
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  6. LastNinja

    LastNinja Full Member

    Dec 31, 2015
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    Obviously it isn't working that well, otherwise you wouldn't come here to tell other people that they have "no sense" and they are "clueless" and they should stop buying tickets and you wouldn't try to get the recommendation on dcrstats changed. If your strategy would work you would just play it for maximum profit and let others do what they want. Simple as that.
     
  7. Dyrk

    Dyrk Sr. Member
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    Jan 7, 2016
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    I was thinking the last few weeks how to improve Poolsize chart. And probably I will just replace it with the "most popular PoS prices chart". Some kind of bar chart with price intervals and amount of tickets purchased in those intervals.

    I hope this chart will make life of PoS-miners with their own strategies even easier.
     
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  8. David

    David Sr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
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    I'm all for discussing strategies and relevant PoS topics, but bashing other members because they might share a different ideology or viewpoint than yours isn't an approach I'd suggest taking in a public discussion. If you are angry that you bought PoS tickets at a high price due to the recommendation on Dyrk's site, don't blame Dyrk - blame your lack of market analysis and research. It's a statistical and factual analysis of the market history and the suggestion is relevant.... maybe not relevant to you or your strategies, but it's relevant nonetheless. At least it doesn't say to purchase tickets when it's higher than the average price...

    I would agree with @LastNinja here. @phzi, you seem frustrated and there are lots of people here to help clarify things if you're confused. But blaming others for your failures and frustrations won't get you far here, or anywhere in life for that matter.
     
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  9. David

    David Sr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
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    I would totally agree with this. I would say that the PoS Poolsize chart is probably the least useful aspect on the main page. Now that we can see how many tickets were purchased in previous (and current) PoS rounds with ticketfeeinfo you should be able to build some really interesting stuff!
     
  10. LastNinja

    LastNinja Full Member

    Dec 31, 2015
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    He rants because others buy the tickets at what he thinks is a too high price (for him obviously). Because of this he can't get them as cheap as he would like to, so his "custom patches built to ensure ticket purchasing is most effective" are apparently not able to handle this situation where other market participants behave not according to his wishes.

    Maybe it would be simpler to upgrade that "custom patch" instead of trying to talk all others into changing their supposedly "clueless" behaviour.
     
  11. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy Sr. Member
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  12. David

    David Sr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
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    Well, you gotta look at it this way. You just gotta look at it!
     
  13. MiloIce

    MiloIce Jr. Member

    Jan 18, 2016
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    @phzi you can just hold on to your dcrs and hopefully wish that you will get that *ideal* price you wish to start purchasing. I'm pretty sure no one is losing out except for yourself. Frankly speaking, I do PoS auto purchase, only adjusts my ticketmaxprice and ticketfee and just let it run. Don't seem to have problem even when I have 400 dcr laying around waiting to purchase the tickets.

    End of the day, if you can't afford to be in this waiting game, you only have 2 choices.. One is to invest more and get them at that price. The other is to seriously redo your *flawless* plan. Oh yea, there is one more option.. which is to dump all your decred at a cheaper rate. Do let me know that beforehand so that I can snap them up at my *ideal* pricing ^^.
     
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  14. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy Sr. Member
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    There is one good side to this though. Having a low round with unfilled slots may make for a lower high. I dont think it will lead to a lower low, more likely a higher low, but you never know. We will just have to wait and look at that...
     
  15. MiloIce

    MiloIce Jr. Member

    Jan 18, 2016
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    The experiment won't work out in the first place. We may have stopped buying but it takes the whole lot of PoS miner to take part in order to really execute this.
     
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  16. Ayush

    Ayush Full Member
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    Jan 9, 2016
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    My question is a pretty simple one - Say everyone decides to not buy tickets for a few days, Will the price go down to 2 dcr?

    If yes, Wont people be interested in this? So by having a mutual understanding and not buy tickets for a few days, we can get tickets for very much lower price and in turn get more profit. A win-win situation for everyone. Is this not possible?

    And another question, will the price of tickets see a hike once the other pools are ready?
    What are your views on this?
     
  17. MiloIce

    MiloIce Jr. Member

    Jan 18, 2016
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    First, not everyone is in the forum or is looking at this thread nor will ALL be willing to experiment. As stated by David, human are selfish. Not all but there are bound to be some. I believe yes, that theory would make price of ticket become 2, but after the blocks to the next ticket purchase pricing, the price will shoot up again. So it won't work as smoothly as you think it would.

    Unless there is less than 1000 tickets in the pool, and we have to fill up the 39k of the tickets before it rockets the price of the ticket again.. Else it won't really work as the price will shoot up right after the 10-12 hours mark when pricing starts to change and the left over mempool tickets will just mean that you/everyone paid that amount of fee * tickets wasted. If I get my understanding correct.
     
  18. Ayush

    Ayush Full Member
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    As far as that selfish part is concerned, why should people not want to take part? they will also get tickets cheaply right?
     
  19. MarSas

    MarSas New Member

    Feb 12, 2016
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    Because there is no guarantee the test would work.
     
  20. Dyrk

    Dyrk Sr. Member
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    Jan 7, 2016
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    Because almost nobody will buy a ticket, and that (probably one) guy, who will buy all tickets in that round will just pay extremely high fees. It is absolutely useless experiment and there is no win-win case, only lose-lose. (well, maybe some little win for PoW miners)

    144 blocks * 20 tickets = 2880 tickets
    2880 tickets * 2 DCR = 5760 DCR

    You need only 5760 DCR to buy all tickets in the 2-DCR price round.

    Current available supply is 2,348,456 DCR.
    Already locked in PoS: 484,406 DCR.
    Available for Staking: 1,864,050 DCR (80% of existing coins)

    1,864,050 DCR available for PoS, are you kidding when you dream about that 5760 DCR round (0,3% of spendable supply)?
    I think that ticket price should stabilize somewhere in range 30 - 40 DCR per ticket. And average ticket price in the existing pool is rising everyday.
     
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