How's This For Luck?

Discussion in 'Tickets' started by Shadowlance, May 12, 2016.

  1. 2017/12/15 - Decred v1.1.2 released! → Release Notes  → Downloads
  1. Shadowlance

    Shadowlance Full Member

    Jan 9, 2016
    220
    155
    Male
    #1 Shadowlance, May 12, 2016
    Was upgrading to 0.1.3. Restarted wallet and this happened:

    Code:
    11:48:42 2016-05-12 [INF] WLLT: The client has successfully connected to dcrd and is now handling websocket notifications
11:48:42 2016-05-12 [INF] WLLT: Finished rescan for 2202 addresses (synced to block 0000000000001df414e717515f79245d7f5dfd1ff012f1204d0489fd3428bfb7, height 27338)
11:49:33 2016-05-12 [INF] WLLT: The wallet has been unlocked without a time limit
11:49:50 2016-05-12 [INF] WLLT: Connecting block 00000000000021892e83e16d9249a0d64ce21153c74aefa8a9215b96206b6fa3, height 27339
11:49:50 2016-05-12 [INF] WLLT: Voted on block 00000000000021892e83e16d9249a0d64ce21153c74aefa8a9215b96206b6fa3 (height 27339)
    I have a backup wallet online for upgrading so I would have picked up the vote, but still... O_O
     
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  2. Jamie Holdstock

    Jamie Holdstock Jr. Member

    Mar 30, 2016
    50
    37
    Male
    London, UK
    #2 Jamie Holdstock, May 12, 2016
    Very lucky indeed. I was expecting to open this thread and see you voting on 2/3 blocks in a row. My best is 3 votes in 20 blocks, and considering I only had around 50 live tickets at the time I was very surprised.
     
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  3. Halestorm

    Halestorm Jr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
    83
    32
    Male
    Data Center
    Texas, USA
    #3 Halestorm, Jun 6, 2016
    My favorite has been the one time I voted twice in the same block. That made me happy. :)
     
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  4. David

    David Sr. Member

    Jan 22, 2016
    364
    207
    Male
    USA
    #4 David, Jun 6, 2016
    Very lucky indeed!

    It's super cool when this happens. I'm no statician, but my math told me there's roughly a 1% chance of this happening if you have 100 tickets with the current poolsize of ~42500
     
    Halestorm likes this.
  5. root

    root Member

    Feb 3, 2016
    381
    76
    #5 root, Jun 7, 2016
    With
    number_combinations(5,2) * number_permutations(42500-100,3) * number_permutations(100,2) / number_permutations(42500,5)
    I get 0.005 % in one block, or 0.787 % in 144 blocks(12 hours), or 11.60% in a week, but I am no statistician either.
     
    Halestorm likes this.
  6. decredited

    decredited New Member

    Mar 12, 2016
    5
    2
    Male
    #6 decredited, Jun 10, 2016
    The hypergeometric distribution is the way to calculate this. It's the same as calculating a ticket in a lottery or keno.
     

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