Is Dcr Market Being Pegged To Usd Range Purposefully?

Discussion in 'Marketplace' started by Bill Threewits, Jun 16, 2016.

  1. 2017/12/15 - Decred v1.1.2 released! → Release Notes  → Downloads
  1. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    There seems to be evidence of someone freezing DCR price range in terms of USD. Nearly perfect inverse chart to BTC. Seems weird that BTC breakout is not benefiting DCR, at all.
     
  2. Nimrod

    Nimrod New Member

    Mar 4, 2016
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    If you look at the other altcoins there is a similar trend. People are selling their altcoin to buy BTC since it is going up fast. If I would have sold my DCR a few weeks ago and bought BTC I could have potentially almost doubled my DCR by now. When to buy and sell that is the question. I'm holding my DCR. Can't be bothered with speculation. At some point there is going to be a movement back to altcoins.
     
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  3. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy Sr. Member
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    Dec 28, 2015
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    Meh. We have discussed this before. DCR is exchanged to/from BTC. It is not tied to BTC in value. If DCR were to drop in value would you expect BTC value to drop because of it? No. Then why expect the reverse?
    There may be some market perception of all coins relatively increasing as BTC rises but they are not directly tied. There would be no need for other coins if that were the case. Some fiat currency is directly tied to another fiat. Cryptocoins do not typically have this feature.
     
  4. Nimrod

    Nimrod New Member

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    I disagree BTC is rising rapidly (400 --> 800). Most people who have altcoin can easily sell them for BTC compared to the hurdle of buying BTC for fiat. That is pushing down the price of the altcoins while the rise of BTC/USD is keeping the price of the altcoin at roughly the same USD value. What happens if/when BTC starts to drop in value will be interesting.
     
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  5. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    I am pretty sure that there is some automated trading happening. It is too consistent for it to be driven by an emotional desire to be in one or the other. The charts are inverses of each another.

    Think about it. DCR can go untraded for a half-hour. If BTC rises 5% in a half-hour and DCR does not trade, one would expect the last price traded (in terms of BTC) to indicate DCR with a 5% rise (in terms of BTC, and so also, USD), as well. The adjusting trades are occurring almost invariably.

    One of the DCR exchanges must have an API available to traders and DCR is being stabilized in terms of BTC. I still have not figured out why. It is not a bad thing. Someone may be providing stability (and so, liquidity) o DCR. Always a good thing.
     
  6. anvoice

    anvoice Member

    Dec 22, 2015
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    Almost certainly a coincidence. 1) Move from altcoins to BTC to fiat 2) miners selling (fiat electricity price) causes a perceived stabilization around USD.

    It's not really good or bad. For me, I'd certainly prefer a rise in DCR, but that's vested interest. For the health of the project, I'd say any central force regulating price wouldn't be too good long-term. Fortunately, due to above argument, I don't believe there's a central force at the moment.
     
  7. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    If the planned selling (for expenses) you reference, renders DCr to not benefit from BTC strength, then shouldn't that same selling be putting a constant downward pressure on BTC/DCR during BTC consolidation? IOW, where is the stabilizing buying coming from?
     
  8. anvoice

    anvoice Member

    Dec 22, 2015
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    The stabilizing buying could be coming several sources. One possibility is miners: knowing that their counterparts will not sell below a certain (electricity for example) threshold, they might buy at below that price to resell later once the order book fills after the adjustment. Second is investors/speculators who happen to have set 1.6-ish $/BTC as their buy threshold because they believe the potential value is much higher. i.e. they're not trying to stabilize the price, merely buy in at a good opportunity. A third is speculators who may wish to profit on the margin by selling at a slightly higher price after the adjustment.
     
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  9. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    Yeah, C0 should be providing liquidity. I assert that here.
    You do make some good points; however, many Alts go well below variable costs due to exit panics. We are not there, though.
     
  10. anvoice

    anvoice Member

    Dec 22, 2015
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    Not that many pure speculators on board at this point imho, hence no huge amount of volatile capital. I'd say it should stay that way, but that's out of the question if Decred is to become popular.
     
  11. .m.

    .m. New Member

    Jan 23, 2016
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  12. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    Looks as if you and I are the only ones who find this strange.

    Of course, there are obvious selling pressures. And, as @Noah mentions, there is the hourly production (s/b 240/HR) that may be sold to pay for electricity. I am mining and I don't do that. So just the pros, maybe half? ($200 worth?) Another reason cited for selling, that I don't feel makes sense is, selling to buy the increasing BTC. I assumed when BTC started to rise that my DCR holdings would benefit. I had no instinct to switch. Obviously, I was wrong. Maybe others are smarter.

    Here is the key thought, though: Pegging DCR to the dollar value requires buying also. That is the most mysterious pressure here - the stabilizing buying. @anvoice suggested, maybe that is the electricity cost threshold. I remember that seemed to be a support for BTC; but, that was when BTC was the only game in town. I do not know what the electricity b/e price is for DCR. Maybe we are close. That could be it.

    Bottom line is this. If there is a floor in DCR then that makes it viable. Take heart; this is exactly what BTC looked like at $2 just before it vaulted to $10.

    A bit of marketing about what makes DCR special may be helpful. BTW, any press is good press.
     
  13. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    Attached Files:

  14. Alexoz

    Alexoz Member

    #14 Alexoz, Jun 18, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2016
    I'm in contact with a young french director who is willing to produce a commercial. He just needs more informations about the crypto world ( he doesn't know Bitcoin).

    Let's see, I'm waiting for the app to make that clear on the screen for a commercial!

    Edit: I am still waiting for an app that will make Decred easy to use for the lambda users!
     
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  15. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    Huge imbalance favoring higher prices. USD peg is gone. New highs on USD basis within striking distance. What'd you do @Alexoz , launch your commercial? :)
     
  16. Alexoz

    Alexoz Member

    I'd like to!
     
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  17. Alexoz

    Alexoz Member

    The chart starts to look like a bull-trend!
     
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  18. Bill Threewits

    Jan 16, 2016
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    Yea, this one is looking good for challenging old USD high ($2.70). Then the old BTC high (.007BTC) would be the next level of great supply (selling). We need some greater average volume. Higher prices can do that.
     
  19. anvoice

    anvoice Member

    Dec 22, 2015
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    I think based on previous trends, 0.006 is not out of the question. As for upwards of 0.007, one can hope. Higher volumes also draw greater interest, so it's extra publicity.
     
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  20. Nimrod

    Nimrod New Member

    Mar 4, 2016
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    "Stable" BTC + "soon to be released" GUI wallet?
     
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