Yes the stake ticket price is lower than it should be. Opening up PoS pools and making PoS easier to do is allowing more people to do so. This will not allow the stake price to drop. That any anyone who did not acquire more DCR than just the airdrop is effectively an ittby bitty solo PoS miner now with barely 13 stake tickets.
Certainly, it would be nice if the price came down to 2DCR again, but with the current number of people participating in stake pools, that would result in a ticket pool so large that most of the tickets would expire before they had a chance to be used.
I am testing now algorithm of next ticket price prediction. And the next price should rise again and be ~ 22.43 DCR.
You will need 4 000 000 DCR to buy 40 000 tickets by price 100 DCR. But now there are about 2 000 000 in total.
To be clear about what I said regarding the price, it was slightly taken out of context here. I didn't predict the price would go that high in the short term as there simply aren't enough coins total right now to support a price that high. There are only ~1906290 coins total right now and 1906290 / 100 DCR ~= 19063 tickets which is far under the target ticket pool size of 40960. What I was talking about is that a price that high is not at all unreasonable from a pure ROI standpoint. Currently, the rewards for a ticket are ~1.85 DCR and the average payout time is a month. In other words, if you bought a ticket for 100 DCR, that's still a 1.85% return in a month , on average. Extending this in an extremely naive way which doesn't take into account several factors such as the decaying subsidy over the course of a year, the fact the payouts are not smoothly distributed, the inability to purchase partial tickets with the gained rewards in order to have compound interest (reward sharing stake pools in the future could make this possible), or volatility in ticket price would result in an APY of roughly 25%. Obviously the real return when factoring in all of the variables will be less than that, but given the massive amount of dollars that are invested into instruments that have returns near the inflation rate, a price that high does not seem at all unreasonable from a pure ROI standpoint.
Even though you did not make the prediction, a prediction of the possibility seems absolutely correct. While I don't know the details of the algorithm I assume it will ever increase until the pool comes down to its designed size. Would that be right? There really doesn't need to be enough DCR to replace the whole pool at 100DCR, just enough to purchase the next batch of SStx.
Pretty much. It is based on a smoothed windowed moving average of how many tickets have been purchased during those windows and taking into account the current number of tickets in the pool as compared to the desired target. There are also upper and lower limits in place on how much it can adjust in a single interval to help limit insane swings. I agree it could certainly peak at a value much higher than it can sustain, but, as the calculations have shown, it can't possibly sustain that price right now given the number of coins. That said, I don't expect it will peak that high either because the vast majority of the original dev portion of the supply is excluded (recall it is being heavily throttled to maintain a fair proportion per previous posts) and the ongoing coin development subsidy that pays for the RFPs isn't staked either, so that effectively reduces the coins available to be staked significantly from your numbers above (and of course not all of the non dev coins will be staked either). There is no way to know for sure though! I'm frequently baffled by things I see people do in regards to their purchasing and selling behavior.
So stake pools basically just vote for us? I thought like all members of a stake pool would receive some reward each time a ticket is selected from the pool. Will this be coming up?
This has already been answered a few times, but I'll put it here again for visibility. This stake pool only votes on your behalf. It is possible to create one with proportional reward splitting in exchange for some security concessions, however this pool does not do that.
Indeed. I think I'll wait little bit before buying new batch of tickets. Some serious ammount of DCR should soon be locked and price (hopefully) would go down. It looks like pools are buying crazy at whatewer price.
I don't know, sorry. For answearing to that question I would defenitely need a christal ball which I do not poses. Any speculations about ticket price is good enough, so you can choose alone. Good luck with it.
Stakepool is currently not processing RPC commands so most functionality of the web interface will not work until connections to the RPC server is restored. Wallets are still online and voting. why is that???????/ problem with pool????????????