1. 2017/06/21 - Decred v1.0.5 released! → Release Notes  → Downloads
    Dismiss Notice

Mempool Count

Discussion in 'Tickets' started by drunkenmugsy, Mar 17, 2017.

  1. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy
    Expand Collapse
    Sr. Member
    Advocate (Reddit)

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    216
    Wow I think this is the first time in forever we have seen the ticket pool actually below the 41000 target?!? 50-57dcr seems to be the settle point for stake votes at the moment?
     
    #1 drunkenmugsy, Mar 17, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2017
  2. davecgh

    davecgh
    Expand Collapse
    Hero Member
    Developer Organizer

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2015
    Messages:
    634
    Likes Received:
    769
    I think you mean ticket pool size. The target is actually 40,960, but yeah pretty close to 41,000. It does appear to the be new settling point for tickets.
     
  3. ClokworkGremlin

    ClokworkGremlin
    Expand Collapse
    Sr. Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2016
    Messages:
    518
    Likes Received:
    371
    We've seen the ticket price settle down before. It's already showing hints of returning to the price spiking.
     
  4. davecgh

    davecgh
    Expand Collapse
    Hero Member
    Developer Organizer

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2015
    Messages:
    634
    Likes Received:
    769
    There has a been an ongoing effort to help stabilize the price by altruistic individuals paying higher rates for tickets. It's true that the yields are actually still quite good at the higher prices, but they are giving up the possibility for higher yields to help prevent having to pay absurd ticket fees which are completely lost if the ticket doesn't get selected.

    The latest version also has changes to the ticket buyer to evenly space the ticket purchases out over the entire window to help combat the previous "pile-on" effect at the start of the window.

    Due to these things, I would expect the price to stay more stable than it has in the past.

    It is also worth noting that the first hard fork vote is going to be to change the ticket price calculation algorithm such that it doesn't have the current tendency to fall into the crazy resonant cycles the current one naturally wants to do. There will be a lot more information available about this as the new release approaches.
     
    drunkenmugsy likes this.
  5. Ayush

    Ayush
    Expand Collapse
    Member
    Advocate (Facebook)

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    Messages:
    512
    Likes Received:
    99
    At around what price will tickets be available in the future?
     
  6. adam2312

    adam2312
    Expand Collapse
    Jr. Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    43
    I find it easiest to first assume a reasonable % of supply being staked, currently about 40%, future may settle around 50% of supply.
    The basis for current and future supply can be found here (https://dcrstats.com/subsidy) or you can generate yourself in a spreadsheet.
    Dividing the amount of DCR being staked (~50% of supply) by the # of target tickets (40,960) will give the estimated ticket price.
    This simple method should work until returns (DCR reward per vote / ticket price) become too low to be financially appealing to investors (I gather ~2% per month return will be the comfort zone) and also confounded by the value the community gives to the ability to vote (e.g. one may not care as much about a meager financial return if it means they will hold a ticket to vote on an issue that's important to them).

    I expect ticket price between 50 and 100 DCR for the foreseeable future (until early 2019).

    Because these prices are prohibitive to common stakeholder participation, I'd also expect partial ticket implementation and/or increase in ticket pool size, which would decrease the price for participation.
     
    #6 adam2312, Mar 19, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
    davecgh likes this.
  7. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy
    Expand Collapse
    Sr. Member
    Advocate (Reddit)

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    216
    An increase in the ticket pool size will obviously reduce returns as well as possibly leading to less participation and lower ticket price? I think we are in a good spot right now. Tweaking the algo to not allow such variable price swings could be useful. Doing that alone will drive ticket price a bit higher it seems to me.
     
    davecgh and ClokworkGremlin like this.
  8. drunkenmugsy

    drunkenmugsy
    Expand Collapse
    Sr. Member
    Advocate (Reddit)

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    216
    Who can say? We have seen it jump from $80 to over $250 in the past few weeks, mostly due to the rise in price but the actual dcr amount has risen from around 20-30ish to 50ish as well.
    I guess the $ amount doesnt really matter so we shouldnt focus on that number. Its all based on how much dcr you actually have to stake with.
     
    ClokworkGremlin likes this.
  9. ClokworkGremlin

    ClokworkGremlin
    Expand Collapse
    Sr. Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2016
    Messages:
    518
    Likes Received:
    371
    This is like asking what the price of wheat will be in the future: there are too many factors, and it is too subject to change to make a prediction.

    I can tell you what the ticket price won't be in the future: 30 DCR or less. Those days are gone.
     
    Ayush likes this.

Share This Page