Price Getting Stabilised?

I think that price will stabilize in 0.002 - 0.003 BTC interval.

 

@Ayush it's difficult to predict decred USD price, because it depends only on Bitcoin price, and nobody knows what will be bitcoin price in 2017.
Probably it's somethig like 0,5$ - 2$

 

I assume in 12 months DCR will be on Poloniex and the GUI wallet will be released already, and will allow people to stake from there.

In that case I think the price will be $5. Too optimistic?

Perhaps. But here's the way I reckon that:

- go to coinmarketcap.com
- look at how many shitcoins are there , and their market caps
- now imagine where you think DCR should be, lwhere it deserves to be, after it's a little more developed in 1 yr... doesn't it deserve to be above many of those shitcoins?
- when you find what you think is its rightful position then do the math

Of course it all depends on so many factors...

We have to see the voting function in DCR, how that will look like... which is DCR's novelty.

PS: I also think Bitcoin will be bullish mostly this coming year so it could be even higher than $5.

 

The Problem with Cryptocurrency is, that it is not sustainable. The power consumption to generate one Coin is in direct relation to the price. If you need 1500 KWh power to generate one Bitcoin you need as much power as an one person household per year. This is ~4g of radioactive waste or 2,2 ton CO2 with power from coal.

There you have your price. It is in direct relation to the needed amount of power. The price rises, when difficulty of creation is rising. As for now it is easy to generate DCR, even more easy with the help of PoS. When there is scarcity, difficulty rises or uncovered demand exists, then the price will rise. But that`s not the case for Decred now. Miners dump their coins and after 1-2 years dev premine start to sell coins, too.

A steady demand for a daily volume of $6.000 for DCR on the exchanges - i dont see no big changes over the last months. Most of this volume is done by bots trading dust.

The only chance for a higher price is if you are able to buy goods and products with your DCR coin or big companies just have to claim that they will support your technology in the future to buy their goods with your coins, then you got a investment bubble

The price is depending on the energy cost for creating the coin. That is the only real value. No more, no less.

Considering this to predict the future of cyptocurrency the 2014 Bitcoin sustainability study says, that “Bitcoin has 99.8% fewer [carbon] emissions than the banking system,” - BUT - the market capitalization of the banking system is 1900 times bigger than Bitcoin. Bitcoin transactions are 5,033 times more energy intensive then visa transactions (if you only consider the energy consumption of their datacenters).

So there is need in development of ASIC and FPGA PoW Miners to reduce the power consumption. And they will come. This also leads to a very small group who will hold great amount of available funds. But this is also contraproductive to a wider implementation in society of cryptocoin. Unfair distribution of funds hestitates the users.

There is a need of a wider acceptance as an instrument of payment. The 'smart contracts' addressed this issue by making the implementation really interesting for companies.

Why not talking about changing the society first? But you wanted to talk about the price prediction, right?
Man i don`t care a dollar more or less.. but feel certain, you wont get rich if that was your question!

 

The only true answer is of course: No Idea.

There are simply too many factors to consider. All we can do is look at the current trends and make projections for the future. It's a great point of @karamble to take real life resources into account. This will decide largely how well a coin will do. With the recent network growth to almost 11 Thash/s, Decred seems to have a bright future (mainly thanks to the ETH/DCR miner).

However, there's more to blockchain than just resources. It's about technology, innovation, and disruption. Bitcoin has paved the way for acceptance of digital currencies. Companies are considering cryptocurrency as a viable alternative. Some smart start-ups already convert altcoins to bitcoin instantly, which allows us to spend altcoins anywhere we can pay with bitcoin.

One important thing to consider is development. The project with the best developers will have a competitive advantage due to it's innovative software features. Right now Ethereum seems to be a good choice. It has excellent developers and a big movement of advocates. The ETH/DCR miner is something that may help to get more attention and a wider Decred community.

Regarding software and technology, Decred also brings something new: True decentralisation. This will become more and more important in the future. The Decred blockchain is very safe against 51% attacks. Furthermore, the devs are committed to create a democratic governance structure. This means that we'll be able to vote on RFPs as well as future development expenses.

Personally I agree with @Tivra that Decred deserves to be a lot higher than it is right now. The increase in value will come when the project's potential will be visible to the public.

Also, I strongly agree with @karamble that this is not a project to make money on. It is a project that will contribute to a fundamental shift in society: power to the people. Rethink the future!

 

It's natural to wonder if you've got a vested interest, and hope that someone has the answers. So nothing wrong with asking.

It's true that it's a guessing game, especially for a year's length. Too many factors to consider: general state of crypto, competing altcoins, devs' actions, the community's decisions, etc. Slight nuances point to at least one more pump in the near future, but even that is a guess.

I can do some basic interpretation though:

"I don't own much Decred, and I don't think it'll rise much."

"I own some Decred so I'm trying to draw on community opinion to try and predict the price somewhat."

Good luck to everyone.

 

I expect that Company 0 are going to start marketing campaign in early 2017, so the price will be pumped (and more important - trading volumes) before devs can start selling their DCR.

That seems to be quite obvious to me, because if you check current market depth on Poloniex, you will see that it's enough to sell 3000-5000 DCR (1.2M available) to dump the price close to 0$.

It's just impossible to sell 840k of coins without a strong marketing campaign. I think devs will be not happy to receive 10 BTC in reward after few years of work.

 

I am close to loosing a hope for Decred. A picture is worth a thousand words.


Also - my comment - and the silence around does not inspire hope
https://forum.decred.org/threads/operators-pow-pool-own-pos-pool-as-well-possible-problem.3791/

Probably time to sell, better late than never.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin up 30 %
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg90ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

 

All I can say is that if your patience is that limited, you're better off without getting into crypto.

Price spikes happen to every coin, and the ones so far for Decred has not been too esoteric. More importantly, it only had a few months to stretch its wings, that's almost nothing.

 

I would agree with the idea that the true value of cryptocurrencies is finally taking away some of the power of governments. If you truly want to make a physical cash income from it then like they say "the only ones making profit during a gold rush are the ones selling the shovels." Better start selling hardware on the market if making large profits is your goal here.

 

There are thousands of crypto, Decred was interesting, I was not here for fast cash out, but am I really the only one to understand the consequences ? For your convenience I copy the whole text here :

Dear all, I am worried a bit with recent development of Decred.
A lot of work and money were recently put into PoS pools to work and to be able to charge fees.
It seems that most of older RFPs were put to hold. I understand priorities may change, but I do not like it still.

It worries me even more that devs first mentioned that it is not a good idea for PoW pool operator to own a PoS pool, and yet they allowed couple to have just that.
Check here
https://forum.decred.org/threads/rfp-6-setup-and-operate-10-stake-pools.1361/page-2#post-17007

I do not know if they own serious part of hashing power, but as ticket price wars got more tough recently, as a PoW pool owner you can select your preferred tickets. I am not saying they do it, just that they can.
And I saw cases of tickets mined with smaller fee, than fees in mempool. The reason may be old code, but how many miners with 0.0.10 version can be out there ?

I would be glad if somebody can ease my worries and clarify the future plans a bit.

source : https://forum.decred.org/threads/operators-pow-pool-own-pos-pool-as-well-possible-problem.3791/

 

I just started doing this mining stuff yesterday so I don't really know what any of that means. Can you explain what the difference between a PoW pool is and a PoS pool? Do you know a section of this forum or maybe another resource that could help me get a better understanding of this stuff?

 

You can find answers in my signature below

 

Interesting thoughts, and good to hear some constructive criticism on the Future of Decred.

The argument that PoW pool owners shouldn't participate in PoS pools is valid, but I think it won't be relevant for the Future of Decred. There will be 10 pools operational, and I expect that the source code for PoS pools will be made available (so anyone with a genuine interest could operate a PoS pool in the future). With such a diversity in pools, the chances of misuse will be limited. To quote @jy-p: "My expectation is that any stake pool found to be using questionable practices would likely have its users simply move to another pool, which creates an incentive to not engage in bad behavior. At worst, this would allow an 'exposed' manipulator a few months of waning influence before their stake pool runs out of tickets to vote as users migrate away".

Regarding the price: Decred going down and Bitcoin going up is not a coincidence. Look at this chart from dcrstats.com



Based on this chart, it does seem that the price is stabilising. When you look at the coinmarketcap.com graphs, you will see that the Decred Market Cap is steadily growing to 3 million. In my opinion these are great indicators - especially considering the volatile market of blockchain technology (and cryptocurrencies in particular).

 

I got thorough replies in the other thread, I feel better now. But the price stabilization you mentioned is with respect to USD, not BTC.
Isn't that strange ?

 

@.m. As you mentioned yourself, Bitcoin went up 30%... It's a very common thing that when Bitcoin goes up, altcoins go down. This doen't only happen to Decred, but to almost any major altcoin out there... Check the charts yourself; you'll see similar patterns.

In my opinion the stable DCR price in USD/EUR is a good thing. First of all because it indicates that Decred is not a 'pump and dump' coin, but that it holds real value. Secondly, this means that Decred is interesting for miners. The more miners, the stronger the network (it will be less vulnerable to 51% attacks). Last but not least, don't forget that every hour roughly 360 DCR is created. Although not all of the coins are immediately available on the exchanges, there is a steady increase in DCR supply. The fact that the price remains stable while supply is growing indicates that Decred is a healthy project.

Happy to hear your thoughts on this..!