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Discussion in 'Tickets' started by dave, Mar 1, 2016.
How is the ticket price calculated? I can't seem to find that info anywhere.
The formula is in this code.
See the calcNextRequiredStakeDifficulty method
you mean payout or actual price?
Payout is a % of block.
price is based on difficulty formula calcNextRequiredStakeDifficulty
see details here:
no, i mean actual price. I saw the code, I was hoping that it was written somewhere in english/math terms so i don't have to try to figure it out from there.
It looks at the last 144 windows of 20 blocks, and calculates the price based on if the ticketpool is higher or lower than the target (~40k) over that range. Then the price is adjusted to try to keep the ticketpool at the target. The ticketpool is restrained to go -5 or +15 / block, so the formula checks what trajectory it's been on, and adjusts the difficulty using the geometric mean. Reading the code is the only precise definition at the moment I'm afraid, if you want to convert into a maths formula then I'm sure people would appreciate it.
As a rule of thumb, you just look at direction of poolsize, and know the difficulty will adjust to counter the movement. Poolsize increasing means difficulty goes up, poolsize decreasing means difficulty goes down.
I tried already to port difficulty.go to JS, but I didn't succeed, because I stucked in some go-stuff which I don't understand. I need some time to learn go, then I'll make second attempt.
At the end I want get a JS lib which can predict next price using data from public API. All necessary data already collecting to dcrstats DB, so it's only a question how to handle it in JS for web.
if you do not mind a RPC call, I believe it would be easy to prepare using available golang codebase.
I think its the number of tickets being bought in the last round before it readjusts are value of a ticket.
Also it takes into account how many tickets are there , more than 40960.
If this is factual it would seem like this could skew results as people are cramming in tickets before the next change?
That's what I have noticed.
See atm, not many people are buying tickets, https://mainnet.decred.org/blocks <--- Fresh stakes per block is around 0-2
at the moment TICKET PRICE:9.61 DCR
So I predict the price will fall at least to 6 DCR after two hours when the price is recalculated.
Let's wait and see.
But the PoS pool is above 40960. So it should increase regardless of how many ticket people are buying?!? It should go up more, possibly above 10?
Even I had thought so,
but last time it was at around 7.65 the pos pool was around 41500+ , but no one was buying tickets anymore.
and the next adjustment resulted in the price becoming 6.33 and then 4.22 .
So I feel how tickets are bought in the last round is factored into, determining the next adjusted price.
Lets wait and see the next price, 7 more blocks left ~33 mins.
So it went down .3. We were both wrong. Still not sure exactly how this works I guess. Other than the pool was only slightly above 40960 so it only went down a little bit as there was not very heavy stake purchase pressure?
Its gonna fall..
I think it counts the number of tickets becoming mature in a round.. :3
I will wait another round and see.
wow, ticket price is falling to 17
I predict it will be close to 20. Let's see!
Someone doesn't want the price to go below 20!
In other news, the devs premine is very close to being equal to the total locked in DCR.
I have a feeling @davecgh 's prediction was not just a plain guess I pray every day for us poor stakers to have cheap tickets again. We shall start a thread to invoke gods and daemons of cryptocurrencies.
Cheap tickets means you need to increase your fee to get them though, which means you won't make any more profit, really.
Well, it really depends
How much would you say the minimum ticketfees were for ticket price below 18 a week ago ?